Dave Tuley, senior reporter at VSiN, joined the Post’s Bettor’s Guide for the 2018 NFL season. His handicapping pieces appear in VSiN’s online magazine, Point Spread Weekly. Here is his prediction and analysis for the Super Bowl 53 over/under between the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams.
Patriots-Rams Over 56¹/₂: I’m known as an underdog bettor, and this season’s playoffs have been pretty good as ’dogs are 7-3 against the spread. And both of these teams won as road ‘dogs in the conference championship games.
Super Bowls also have been berry, berry good to yours truly, as I’ve gone 6-1 against the spread with the ’dog over the past seven years, with the Patriots’ rally two years ago against the Atlanta Falcons being the only loser. However, I can’t get onboard with the Rams this Sunday.
This looks to be yet another game in which — no matter if you believe the Patriots or Rams are the better team — Bill Belichick and Tom Brady will do just enough to get the victory in another New England Super Bowl that’s decided late. I made the final score Patriots 33, Rams 30, so I actually believe the betting value is on the Patriots at -2¹/₂ and it’s a pass at -3 (though I know several people trying to hit a middle with Patriots at -140 or less on the money line and Rams +3).
I’m making the Over the better bet than either side. I really felt this total should have been at least 60 with the game being played indoors at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, and I’m actually loving that early wagering has pushed it lower.
CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY: 2-0.